US intelligence has reportedly warned European governments about a possible Russian drone operation targeting Spain, France or Italy, according to Spanish newspaper El Mundo.

The reported scenario involves launching drones from commercial vessels operating in the Mediterranean, potentially allowing the weapons to be moved close to European coastlines while appearing to be part of normal maritime traffic.

The CIA and the governments of Spain, France and Italy have not publicly confirmed the report.

Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto also said on September 24 that Italian authorities had not independently confirmed the reported alert.

The warning comes as European governments remain increasingly focused on Russian drones, sabotage and other forms of activity that could target critical infrastructure without taking the form of a conventional military attack.

What does the reported CIA warning say? According to El Mundo, US intelligence services have shared information with several European governments about a possible Russian operation involving drones against targets in southern Europe.

Spain, France and Italy were reportedly identified as potential targets.

The alleged plan would involve concealing drones aboard commercial ships and launching them from the Mediterranean.

Using civilian vessels could make it harder for investigators to immediately determine where an attack originated.

The report describes the scenario as part of a potential Russian strategy designed to disrupt while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability.

Why would Russia use commercial ships? Launching a drone from a ship would give an attacker a very different approach from a conventional land-based operation.

A merchant vessel can operate within busy international shipping routes, potentially allowing a launch platform to blend into normal maritime traffic.

The Mediterranean is one of the world’s busiest maritime regions, with commercial vessels constantly moving between Europe, North Africa and the Middle East.

A launch from offshore could also allow a relatively short-range drone to reach coastal targets without crossing the airspace of several countries first.

Which drone could Russia use? The reported warning identifies the Russian-made Gerbera as a possible platform.

The Gerbera is a comparatively small unmanned aircraft that has been used in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Open-source reporting puts its length at around two meters and its range at as much as 600 kilometers, with a reported maximum speed of approximately 160 kilometers per hour.

Its payload is much smaller than that of a conventional missile.

Reports describe the drone as capable of carrying roughly 4 to 5 kilograms of explosives.

That would make it better suited to localized damage, fires or disruption than to destroying heavily fortified military installations.

Why is the Gerbera significant? The Gerbera’s relatively low cost and small size could make it useful in operations where the objective is to create disruption rather than deliver a massive explosive payload.

A drone does not necessarily need to destroy a major facility to create consequences.

An attack near an airport, port, energy installation or communications facility could result in closures, emergency responses and temporary interruptions even if the physical damage were limited.

That potential for disruption is one reason small drones have become a growing security concern for European governments.

What could Russia potentially target? The reported intelligence assessment does not identify specific buildings or installations.

The broad categories mentioned in reports include ports, energy infrastructure and coastal communications facilities.

Those locations are strategically important because Mediterranean ports handle large volumes of European trade and energy-related shipping.

Critical communications infrastructure is similarly important because disruption to digital or physical networks can affect businesses, transportation and government services well beyond the immediate target.

The reported scenario therefore appears focused on economically and strategically important coastal infrastructure.

Has Russia tested maritime drone launches before? The idea of launching drones from maritime platforms is not entirely theoretical.

Euronews reported that Swedish naval forces detected a drone taking off from a Russian intelligence vessel in the Öresund Strait in February 2026.

That incident does not prove that Russia is preparing an attack on southern European countries.

It does, however, demonstrate that maritime platforms can be used in connection with unmanned aircraft operations.

The possibility becomes more significant when combined with the use of commercial shipping as a concealment method, as described in the El Mundo report.

Why are Spain, France and Italy being mentioned? All three countries have extensive Mediterranean coastlines and operate major ports and energy infrastructure.

They are also members of NATO and have supported Ukraine in different ways since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022.

A maritime drone operation would potentially allow an attacker to approach from a direction that is less associated with the traditional Russia-NATO confrontation along Europe’s eastern frontier.

The reported intelligence....