PTIRBI GDP growth forecast 2026 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its forecast for India's economic growth in fiscal 2026-27 to 7.1% on Wednesday, as stronger-than-expected domestic activity and a 7.8% expansion in the April-June quarter improve the growth outlook even as elevated oil prices, inflation and weather risks cloud the road ahead.The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to increase the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% after a detailed assessment of evolving macroeconomic and financial conditions, developments and the outlook.An ET poll of economists had widely expected the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% in its October policy, on persistent inflationary pressures and higher crude prices.The growth upgrade marks a further shift in the RBI's assessment of the economy since its August policy, when the central bank raised its FY27 growth forecast by 10 basis points to 6.7% from 6.6%.The RBI had then projected growth at 7% in the first quarter, 6.4% in the second, 6.5% in the third and 6.8% in the fourth quarter of FY27.

It had retained a neutral policy stance and kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, saying it needed greater clarity on inflation risks from higher oil prices and other supply shocks.Live EventsSince then, the economy has delivered stronger-than-expected 7.8% growth in the June quarter, prompting a wave of upgrades from global forecasters.

The RBI now projected growth at 7.2% in the second quarter, 6.9% in the third and 6.8% in the fourth quarter, while real GDP growth in the first quarter of FY28 was projected at 7.1%.The 40-basis-point upward revision in the full-year growth forecast further underscored the strength of economic activity despite significant headwinds, the RBI said.Growth outlook gets a broad upgradeEarlier this week, the World Bank raised its FY27 growth forecast for India to 7.1% from 6.6%, adding to a slew of upgrades from global forecasters.

It said resilient domestic consumption had helped the economy absorb the shock of higher energy prices, although elevated oil prices and the risk of an El Niño remained key threats.The upgrade came after a stronger-than-expected first quarter, which has prompted major forecasters to reassess how much momentum the Indian economy is carrying into the rest of the year.

The OECD now sees growth at 7.1%, while S&P Global Ratings, the Asian Development Bank and Moody’s expect it to be around 7%.

Fitch is slightly more cautious at 6.9%.The broad message is clear: India’s domestic economy has proved more resilient than expected.

Consumption has held up, investment has remained supportive and manufacturing and services have continued to expand, cushioning the economy from weaker global demand and a series of external shocks.That resilience is particularly important because the economy has been absorbing a difficult mix of high oil prices, geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainty.

The World Bank expects domestic consumption to remain a key growth engine, with public investment and stronger industrial activity helping sustain momentum even as private investment remains....